Impacting Real-World Operations

The Laboratory plays a pivotal role in safeguarding U.S forces against a broad range of global threats, particularly in contested environments. APL’s Theater Defense Mission Area is homing in on cutting-edge solutions that enable the military to detect, track and intercept threats such as ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and uncrewed aerial vehicles across multiple domains.

Engagement with Navy leadership and fleet personnel has been pivotal to APL’s ability to tailor missile defense systems to real-world challenges. Vice Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Jim Kilby visited APL in July 2024 to meet with program leaders and engineers, including those from the Theater Defense Mission Area. The discussions focused on addressing operational challenges faced by the fleet and leveraging prototypes like the Cerberus planning system to enhance readiness and decision-making capabilities.

Similarly, APL welcomed crew members of the USS Mason on Sept. 11, following their deployment in the Red Sea. The sailors shared firsthand accounts of operating systems, many of which were developed with APL, under high-stakes conditions, providing valuable insights into the systems’ real-world performance. These collaborative discussions exemplify APL’s commitment to continuous improvement through direct collaboration with the Navy.

“These engagements are extremely valuable,” said Vishal Giare, mission area executive for Theater Defense. “Hearing directly from the warfighter on how they employed these systems in complex operational environments arms our technical experts with essential insights to rapidly improve systems to meet their needs.”

These capabilities have been on operational display during U.S. Navy deployments in the Red Sea, where ships like the USS Mason, USS Arleigh Burke and USS Carney are facing sustained missile and drone attacks. The deployments, which ramped up following the breakout of hostilities in the region, marked the first time U.S. naval forces have encountered such sustained air threats since World War II. As the attacks happened, APL engineers provided the Navy with rapid assessment, analysis and recommendations for ship defensive actions in the region, helping to combat the evolving threats.

APL’s talent for quick data analysis and real-time guidance allowed the Navy to validate system performance and make adjustments on the spot.

“This agile evaluation and analysis sets APL apart as a technical leader in missile defense. We bring decades of missile defense experience to our sponsors, and our ability to adapt and provide insights in real time is critical to the Navy’s success,” said Margaret Mitchell, Aegis BMD Combat System Development Program manager.

Enabling this support is APL’s development of advanced prototypes like Cerberus, which is shaped by direct feedback from the fleet. Cerberus is designed to provide warfighters with critical insights during mission planning, helping to optimize ship positioning and resource allocation in high-pressure situations. This capability is aimed at addressing situations like the one encountered during the USS Arleigh Burke and USS Carney’s deployment, where the crews had to adapt rapidly to the threat of large raid missile attacks in coordination with our international partners in the region.

Hearing directly from the warfighter on how they employed these systems in complex operational environments arms our technical experts with essential insights to rapidly improve systems to meet their needs.

— Vishal Giare, APL’s mission area executive for Theater Defense

APL’s contributions also extend beyond individual deployments. Through its Integrated Combat Systems and Joint Capability Development programs, APL focuses on creating and maturing the next generation of air and missile defense capabilities for our forces. By incorporating lessons learned from engagements such as those in the Red Sea, the Laboratory ensures that the Navy’s missile defense and combat systems evolve to meet emerging threats. APL also continuously develops and refines naval doctrine and analyzes system performance using actual combat experience. Through this iterative process of analysis, adjustment and enhancement, APL is a critical partner in the Navy’s mission to defend U.S. interests globally.

Strengthening Homeland Defense

Over 19 days in December 2023, several drones of various sizes flew dangerously close to sensitive military areas at Joint Base Langley-Eustis in Virginia. While public information around the purpose and owner of these drones is scant, their proximity to a major military area underscored a new type of threat to national security — and this was not an isolated incident.

According to the Department of Defense (DoD), drones enter restricted airspace around U.S. installations two to three times a week, and defending against domestic drone incursions requires coordination with domestic agencies to ensure compliance with legal and public safety equities — for example, coordinating with the Federal Aviation Administration to avoid disrupting civilian air traffic.

As drone use becomes more widespread and drones become increasingly sophisticated — and the U.S. military races to address this threat before it escalates even further — APL has taken a leading role in developing technologies to detect, track and neutralize potential drone threats in domestic airspace. These efforts have become a key part of the Laboratory’s work with the DoD and other government agencies, especially work pertaining to defending military installations and other critical infrastructure.

APL’s approach combines a variety of sensors, including radar, radio frequency tracking and electro-optical/infrared systems, to detect drones in real time. This multimodal approach is particularly important in distinguishing hostile drones from the increasing number of legally owned, often commercially operated, drones in U.S. airspace.

“Threat drones can easily hide in the clutter of other drone traffic,” noted Andy Oak, APL’s mission area executive for Homeland Defense. “Our goal is to identify and mitigate those threats as quickly and safely as possible, without impacting the surrounding environment or civilian infrastructure.”

APL is particularly focused on the “friend-or-foe” problem. Many commercially available counter-drone systems were designed for use at overseas operating bases, where any unfamiliar drone is presumed to be hostile. But that distinction is less clear at home; APL is developing advanced systems to help operators quickly identify whether a drone poses a threat, a crucial step when operators may have only minutes to assess a drone’s trajectory and potential intent before taking action.

It’s critical that we develop innovative solutions that allow us to disable drones safely, even in densely populated or high-risk areas.

— Andrea Brown, APL engineer specializing in multidomain surveillance and tracking

In addition to detecting drones, APL is advancing nonkinetic methods of drone mitigation — ways to neutralize a drone without using a projectile. When sufficiently matured, nonkinetic approaches will be a more cost-effective way to mitigate drone threats and be able to constrain the resulting debris over crowded areas.

Possibilities include taking over a drone’s control link to command it to land or redirect its course, or using focused energy or electromagnetic pulses to disable it.

“The ability to defeat hostile drones without collateral damage is vital,” said Andrea Brown, an APL engineer who specializes in multidomain surveillance and tracking. “It’s critical that we develop innovative solutions that allow us to disable drones safely, even in densely populated or high-risk areas.”

While APL’s technological innovations are crucial, its strategic collaboration with military command leadership is equally important in reshaping the nation’s approach to homeland defense. Recognizing the rapidly evolving nature of modern threats, Army North, part of U.S. Northern Command, has been spearheading efforts to build resilience into homeland defense strategies. Over the past year, APL worked with Army North to organize a series of workshops focused on understanding the operational, technological and legal requirements for defending the homeland. Experts from across the military and academia came together to explore how the U.S. can respond to a broad spectrum of threats, including missiles, drones, cyberattacks and biological hazards.

APL was instrumental in synthesizing the comprehensive workshop report for Army North that outlines the future of homeland defense, including actionable recommendations, such as concepts for ensuring resilience around the DoD’s most critical sites. The report also highlighted the importance of enhancing coordination between the military and other government agencies to collectively achieve the mission of keeping the homeland safe.

In addition to defending against physical threats like drones, APL is also addressing cybersecurity risks, particularly those posed by so-called “zero-day” attacks that exploit previously unknown vulnerabilities in a system. APL’s High Adversary Tier Threat Response Interdicting Cyberspace Kill-chain methodology — dubbed HAT TRICK — is a cybersecurity engineering method that seeks to design national security systems today that will be resilient against tomorrow’s advanced cyberspace adversaries.

HAT TRICK builds resilience into systems from the outset, ensuring that they can continue to function during and recover quickly from an attack. This approach is vital for protecting critical infrastructure and military systems that form the backbone of the nation’s defense.

Missile Defense and Strategic Deterrence

APL makes significant contributions to the nation’s ability to defend against evolving missile threats, while also reinforcing global security partnerships. Through its leadership in testing, system design and real-time analysis, APL continues to push the boundaries of missile defense capabilities, ensuring the United States and its allies are prepared for a range of scenarios.

In early 2024, APL collaborated with the U.S. Missile Defense Agency (MDA) and Navy to conduct Flight Test Other-23 (FTX-23), a critical milestone in advancing missile defense capabilities. The Feb. 8 test — also known as Stellar Sisyphus — demonstrated sensor tracking and communications link capabilities of the Aegis Weapon System, a cornerstone of naval missile defense for which APL has served as the technical direction agent for many years.

Used by the U.S. Navy and other allied navies, the Aegis Weapon System is designed to track, engage and destroy enemy missiles and aircraft while providing protection to ships and their accompanying fleets. The system is constantly evolving to address new threats and incorporate advancements in technology, so the MDA and the Navy schedule frequent flight tests to validate new capabilities and assess system performance.

MDA and the Navy executed FTX-23 off the coast of the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii. The first part of the event demonstrated the Aegis Weapon System’s ability to track and discriminate a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) target amid countermeasures; the second part involved the firing of a Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) Block IIA, which intercepted the same MRBM target, verifying additional functionality of the SM-3 Block IIA. The test was planned as a tracking event of a complex target with the primary objective of collecting data on the target scene from multiple sensors across different viewing angles.

As the technical direction agent for Aegis BMD, APL guides and oversees the technical aspects of the system’s development, testing and integration. Laboratory engineers played essential roles in planning and designing the FTX-23 mission scenario, evaluating the test target and predicting how the Aegis BMD system would perform during the test.

“APL has played a critical role in the development and evolution of ballistic missile defense from the sea for decades,” said Barbara Lakota, program area manager for Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense at APL. “The successful execution of FTX-23 reflects vital progress the integrated government-laboratory-industry team has made in advancing theater air and missile defense to counter the increasing complexity of evolving adversary missile capabilities.”

The test not only verified the missile’s functionality but also underscored the Aegis Weapon System’s capacity for conducting some of the most challenging target discrimination and intercept missions to date.

The successful execution of FTX-23 reflects vital progress the integrated government-laboratory-industry team has made in advancing theater air and missile defense to counter the increasing complexity of evolving adversary missile capabilities.

— Barbara Lakota, program area manager for Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense at APL

The USS McCampbell and USS Jack H. Lucas — both Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers — along with the Aegis Ashore Missile Defense Test Complex and the Advanced Radar Development Evaluation Laboratory participated in the test, collecting valuable tracking data on the target that will be used to anchor modeling and simulation efforts aimed at further improving the U.S. Navy’s missile defense system.

Subsequent tests, including the spring Flight Test Aegis Weapon System (FTM-32) and the multinational Pacific Dragon exercise in the summer, further highlighted APL’s contributions. FTM-32, a Standard Missile-6 test in March, was a critical event that underscored APL’s integral role in advancing missile defense capabilities and strengthening international security partnerships.

The test, known as Stellar Laelaps, demonstrated the capability to detect, track, engage and intercept an MRBM target in its terminal phase of flight. The live intercept was performed by a ship equipped with the Baseline 9 Aegis Weapon System.

“The success of FTM-32 underscores the value of building on robustly engineered systems of systems to deliver relevant operational capabilities to the warfighter,” said Vishal Giare, mission area executive for Theater Defense. “At APL, we are committed to pushing the envelope in missile defense technology to ensure our nation’s security and military readiness.”

While missile defense tests and system design are critical to maintaining U.S. security, other key capabilities lie in APL’s behind-the-scenes work on the nation’s strategic deterrent. This work includes the Demonstration and Shakedown Operation (DASO), a critical element in certifying submarine-launched ballistic missile systems that ensures the readiness of both the systems and the crews that will operate them.

APL’s start-to-finish DASO involvement extends from preflight assessments to data processing and analysis. APL supported a DASO for the USS Louisiana that certified the Trident II missile system’s operational readiness. Preflight assessments and the flight test from Louisiana occurred in 2023, and full evaluation of the operation and system performance was completed in 2024. “The DASO is one of the most critical tasks APL performs for our sponsors,” said Steve Lewia, mission area executive for Strategic Deterrence. “Certifying the Trident II system ensures that our nation’s most survivable leg of the nuclear triad remains ready for any scenario.”

APL’s decades of experience in supporting DASOs have been instrumental in maintaining the readiness of these vital missile systems, ensuring that the U.S. continues to exercise strategic deterrence globally.

Collaborating on Space Security and Defense

As space becomes a critical domain for national security, APL is leading efforts to advance space defense capabilities through innovative technologies, collaboration with key partners like the U.S. Space Force and NATO, space weather analysis, and internal payload development programs.

Space weather is a double-edged sword: It can deliver majestic phenomena like the auroras near Earth’s poles, but it can also create conditions that significantly impact national security.

In 2014, for example, APL researchers discovered that plasma bubbles made up of clouds of electrically charged particles connected to a space weather effect partly contributed to communications outages during a major battle in the Afghanistan War, during which three Navy SEALs died. APL continues to work on atmospheric models and new sensors and instruments not only to aid in discovering such anomalies, but also to investigate how to keep critical national security assets safe both in space and on the ground.

NASA’s Center for Geospace Storms (CGS), launched in 2020 and headquartered at APL, is developing a predictive model that can provide a stronger grasp of space weather events and their potential impacts before they happen. In April, CGS made this model available for simulations upon request through NASA’s Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC).

“The availability of these simulations at CCMC empowers the scientific community to work together toward deepening our understanding of how space weather affects the near-Earth environment,” said Slava Merkin, CGS director and APL space physicist.

Measuring and Modeling

Multiple APL efforts aim to measure and model space-physics properties to specify and forecast ionospheric behavior, uncover disruptions in the upper atmosphere and monitor conditions that lead to atmospheric drag on satellites. These include:

High-Latitude Ionosphere Specification: An ensemble of models that have been combined with data assimilation capabilities to generate detailed, near-real-time ionosphere specifications for use in multiple DoD applications, such as radar systems in the high northern latitudes

Special Sensor Ultraviolet Spectrographic Imager (SSUSI): A series of APL-built instruments that power more than 20 space weather-related products in near-real time for the U.S. Space Force to help describe the state of the ionosphere, thermosphere and auroral zone environments

OVATION Prime: A predictive model of auroral location, boundaries and energy flux used operationally by the U.S. Space Force and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center

Next-generation Ionosphere Model for Operations (NIMO): A predictive, assimilative model of the ionosphere that can use data from ground GPS receivers, radio occultation from satellites, ionosondes and SSUSI

These resources bolster sponsor efforts to protect critical assets. “We want to help operators figure out if something was done to their spacecraft intentionally, or if it’s just being affected by natural phenomena,” said APL researcher Ben Estacio. “That distinction is critical to any operation.”

The Laboratory is also playing a key role in supporting the U.S. Space Force. In 2024, APL was selected to lead U.S. Space Force’s critical Space Command and Control requirements tasking, providing superior frameworks to fight and win in the space domain today and in the future. The task focuses on three cornerstone increments. The first is coalesced around counter-C5ISRT, which refers to efforts aimed at disrupting or neutralizing an adversary’s command, control, computing, communications, cyber, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance and targeting (C5ISRT) systems. The second increment revolves around supporting the Protect and Defend strategic framework, critical for safeguarding key assets, forces and systems from adversary threats and attacks. The third increment is Joint Fires — a DoD priority to ensure the integration of weapons effects from any service in coordinated actions toward a joint objective — and space is no exception.

And APL is providing critical contributions to U.S. Space Command and the National Space Defense Center space situational awareness beyond geostationary Earth orbit (xGEO). Leveraging APL’s astrodynamics expertise, radio-frequency tracking capabilities and satellite communications facilities, the Laboratory is the primary data source for xGEO tracking data and custody. In addition to providing metric tracking data for more than five noncooperative xGEO objects, APL has been essential in fusing data — combining APL’s one-way Doppler data with observations from other mission partners to provide the best possible navigation solution of the tracking object list. With the number of objects in the xGEO orbital regime expected to increase exponentially, this will continue to be a focus for APL’s National Security Space Mission Area.

Alongside that work, APL is also training the next generation of space defense leaders through its partnership with the U.S. Space Force’s Schriever and West Space Scholars program. This initiative, developed with the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, provides U.S. Space Force officers and civilians with hands-on experience in space technology and research.

In August, APL offered 70 scholars a firsthand look at cutting-edge projects like the in-development Interstellar Mapping and Acceleration Probe (IMAP) and the Titan Chamber, APL’s largest space-environment simulator, being used to mimic conditions on Saturn’s largest moon for NASA’s upcoming Dragonfly mission.

“We’re proud to support the U.S. Space Force by facilitating the education and growth of its leaders,” said Patrick Binning, APL’s mission area executive for National Security Space. “By opening our doors to these talented individuals, we hope to provide them with the tools and expertise they need to make a meaningful impact on space security.”

This collaboration is not only strengthening the U.S. Space Force’s capabilities but also ensuring that APL remains at the forefront of space defense by integrating fresh perspectives from future leaders.

In April, APL played a key role in the NATO Science and Technology Organization’s (STO) Multi-Domain Space Deterrence Wargame, which brought military leaders and policymakers from nine nations together to address growing threats in space. Meeting in The Hague, Netherlands, exercise participants focused on developing a comprehensive deterrence framework to counter aggressive actions against space assets.

APL’s leadership in this wargame helped NATO members shape strategies for deterring hostile acts in space and coordinating efforts to prevent conflicts.

— Susanne Wirwille, APL research analyst and wargame director

Wargame participants from political and military leadership positions employed their national strengths to generate an orchestrated approach to deter threatening and hostile behavior against allied space capabilities.

“APL’s leadership in this wargame helped NATO members shape strategies for deterring hostile acts in space and coordinating efforts to prevent conflicts,” said Susanne Wirwille, an APL research analyst who directed the wargame, and who chairs the NATO task group formed to develop and test a comprehensive space deterrence framework. “This wargame underscored APL’s vital role in providing the technical expertise and strategic insights necessary to enhance multinational space deterrence efforts.”

Internally, APL is pushing the boundaries of space technology by empowering — and funding — staff members to develop cutting-edge instruments and software for national security space missions.

“We’re unleashing the creativity and innovation of the entire Lab to address the challenges of space security,” said Dennis Woodfork, deputy mission area executive for National Security Space at APL. “We’re tapping into the wide-ranging expertise and incredible knowledge base at APL to create capabilities that will give our nation a competitive edge in space.”

Innovating Advanced Systems for Defense

As the DoD continues to integrate autonomous technologies into military operations, APL is playing a crucial role in developing and deploying these systems. From rapidly fielding uncrewed surface vessels (USVs) to solving complex rearming challenges at sea, APL’s innovations are enhancing the Navy’s ability to operate in contested environments while minimizing risks to personnel.

In October 2024, APL played a pivotal role in the AUKUS (Australia, the U.K. and the U.S.) Autonomous Warrior demonstration in Jervis Bay, Australia, in which the Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Research and Engineering (OUSD(R&E)) assessed the performance of USVs under operational conditions. APL’s contributions were essential in testing the modularity and scalability of these autonomous systems, which are designed to enhance the Navy’s ability to conduct maritime operations with reduced human involvement.

At the center of these efforts was the Autonomy Baseline Library (ABL), an open architecture software framework sponsored by PMS 406 that APL is developing in collaboration with industry partners and Navy research centers. The ABL allows autonomous behaviors to be rapidly integrated into various USVs, enabling them to perform complex tasks such as station-keeping, hazard avoidance and long-duration missions.

Exercise participants also tested the OUSD(R&E)-sponsored Multi-Domain Unmanned Secure Integrated Communications (MUSIC) capability, which APL integrated onto the USVs. MUSIC enables seamless communication across multiple domains — demonstrating connectivity from the stratosphere through subsea platforms — ensuring that uncrewed platforms can operate effectively in communication-degraded environments.

“By analyzing the integration of advanced autonomy and communication technologies, we’re helping the Navy enhance its ability to conduct complex missions with reduced personnel risk,” said Toni Salter, APL’s Emerging Concepts program manager.

APL is also addressing one of the Navy’s most persistent logistical challenges: reloading vertical launching systems (VLSs) at sea. Traditionally, Navy destroyers must return to port to reload their VLS with missiles, limiting their operational endurance in contested regions far from port.

Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro has said he considers advancing reloading at-sea capabilities a major priority for the Navy. In response, APL worked with the Naval Sea Systems Command (NAVSEA) Technology Office (SEA 05T) to revive the Transferrable Reload At-sea Method (TRAM) — a system originally designed at the Naval Surface Warfare Center, Port Hueneme Division, in the 1990s as a proof of concept for transferring missile canisters from supply ships to warships while at sea. This concept is known as connected replenishment (CONREP).

In October, the Navy successfully demonstrated the TRAM on an underway warship in open ocean for the first time. With APL engineers present, sailors aboard the Ticonderoga-class cruiser USS Chosin (CG 65) and the USNS Washington Chambers (T-AKE 11) demonstrated a transfer and reload evolution of empty missile canisters via CONREP and the TRAM. With the TRAM on board the USS Chosin, sailors were able to control, relocate, upright, strike-up and strike-down missile canisters into VLS cells.

“We proved just how game-changing TRAM truly is — and what a powerful deterrent it will be to our competitors,” said Del Toro. “This demonstration marks a key milestone on the path to perfecting this capability and fielding it for sustained operations at sea.”

“Thank you to the engineers at NAVSEA and Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab who made today happen,” Del Toro noted at the test.

We proved just how game-changing the Transferrable Reload At-sea Method truly is — and what a powerful deterrent it will be to our competitors.

— Carlos Del Toro, Secretary of the Navy

The groundbreaking at-sea test follows a successful land- based demonstration, which was also supported by APL, in July at Naval Surface Warfare Center, Port Hueneme Division in California. APL is redesigning the TRAM to incorporate advanced manufacturing techniques and lessons learned from the demonstration to enable rapid deployment of the system throughout the fleet. APL is also conducting a comprehensive VLS reload study that will analyze multiple VLS reload techniques to maximize operational availability of VLS-equipped ships.

Optimizing Joint and Multinational Defense Operations

APL is enhancing joint and multinational defense operations through its involvement in activities such as Valiant Shield 2024, a biennial exercise led by U.S. Indo-Pacific Command that integrates forces from across the U.S. Navy, Air Force, Coast Guard, and Space Force and partner nations. This large-scale exercise aimed to build operational skills in a multidomain environment, from land and sea to space and cyberspace.

APL’s contributions were critical to the success of the exercise. Fourteen APL staff members were deployed to ships and operations centers across Guam, Hawaii and California, providing real-time analysis and expertise. The exercise focused on detecting, locating and engaging units across multiple domains, including long-range maritime fires — a key area where APL’s expertise in system performance and optimization proved invaluable.

“When you’ve actually seen what service members do at sea, it becomes clear what they need and why they ask the questions they ask,” said Bill Druce, a weapons systems engineer at APL. “Our job is to make sure those needs are met with the best technology and analysis available.”

APL has been a longstanding participant in the biennial Valiant Shield exercise, contributing to the execution of experiments involving the Ship Self Defense System and delivering a range of operational and prototype analyses during the event. APL’s involvement in Valiant Shield 2024 exemplifies how the Laboratory integrates advanced technologies into actual military operations, helping the U.S. and its allies enhance interoperability and readiness across multiple domains.

Transforming Naval Maintenance and Logistics

APL is revolutionizing how the Navy approaches fleet maintenance with its Real-time Evaluation and Predictive Artificial Intelligence for Repairs (REPAIR) effort. The REPAIR team integrated four emerging technologies to demonstrate a comprehensive proof of concept, enabling the troubleshooting and repair of a complex shipboard system through the identification and physical restoration of a faulty circuit board.

REPAIR joined data analytics, generative AI, augmented reality and advanced manufacturing technologies to develop an AI agent that guides naval personnel through complex repairs via natural language.

One of the most transformative aspects of REPAIR is its AI-driven “digital partner,” serving as an expert in the technician’s ear that guides troubleshooting and repair procedures to resolve critical issues in real time. This capability not only reduces troubleshooting time but also ensures that ships remain operational in contested environments, all while reducing the required technician expertise level.

“The fleet of tomorrow will need novel technologies and modernized maintenance processes that enable our ships to stay in the fight longer,” said Brendan McNelly, APL’s assistant program manager for Advanced Autonomy Test and Evaluation.

APL is also exploring advanced electronics and mechanical manufacturing to enable in-field repairs of critical shipboard systems, further reducing downtime. By focusing on predictive maintenance and innovative repair techniques, the Laboratory is helping to ensure that the Navy remains agile and resilient in future conflicts.

Undersea Warfare and Strategic Alliances

APL continues to strengthen its leadership in undersea warfare and strategic alliances through its leadership of the Submarine Technology Symposium (STS), a key forum for discussing advancements in submarine capabilities. In May, APL hosted STS for the 36th consecutive year. During the event, Navy leaders, academic researchers and industry representatives examined the evolving state of undersea warfare.

Central to the discussions was the trilateral security agreement between AUKUS partners and an emphasis on the need for collaboration among allies to counter the aggressive growth of adversaries’ undersea capabilities.

“The current geopolitical landscape is dominated by a struggle for primacy in comprehensive national power across military, political, economic and cultural concerns,” said Chris Watkins, APL’s mission area executive for Sea Control and symposium co-chair. “Undersea capabilities are a key focus area in this competition.”

The STS highlighted the Laboratory’s technical innovations and fostered strategic partnership, ensuring that the U.S. and its allies maintain a competitive edge in this critical domain.

The current geopolitical landscape is dominated by a struggle for primacy in comprehensive national power across military, political, economic and cultural concerns. Undersea capabilities are a key focus area in this competition.

— Chris Watkins, APL’s mission area executive for Sea Control and symposium co-chair

Applying Analytical Capabilities to Understand Foreign Military Investment

In an era of global competition, understanding the scale of adversary military investments is critical to shaping U.S. defense strategy. APL’s recent study on Chinese military spending, Estimating Foreign Military Investment, offers an in-depth analysis of the true scale of China’s defense budget — revealing that previous estimates significantly underestimated the scope of Chinese military investments.

To bring greater clarity to China’s annual defense spending levels, APL analysts developed a new model that allows users to better capture research and development (R&D) spending and to account for lower production and labor costs in China. This creates a more comprehensive estimate of China’s military investment.

Until recently, and due to the opaque nature of China’s publicly released defense budgets, U.S. analyses assumed relatively low levels of R&D investment when compared with U.S. spending. However, APL’s analysis suggests that the publicly available figures do not fully account for military-related spending at universities, government agencies and the defense industry conglomerates.

Past U.S. studies have relied on market exchange rate comparisons to convert Chinese spending in yuan renminbi to U.S. dollars. But APL researchers identified that military spending is not exchanged in public markets; hence, standard exchange rates are unlikely to accurately translate renminbi to dollars.

By applying an approach that relies on purchasing power parity, APL’s assessment estimated China’s military budget to be around $500 billion — nearly double earlier estimates by other organizations. This puts China’s defense spending at approximately 70% of the U.S. defense budget.

“Accurately understanding adversary spending is crucial for making informed decisions about U.S. defense investments,” said Mark Hodgins, co-principal investigator of the study. “Our approach gives policymakers a clearer picture of how adversaries allocate their resources, enabling better strategic planning.”

APL’s work in this area provides critical insights into the global balance of power, ensuring that U.S. defense strategies remain well-informed and responsive to emerging threats.